Is every card shuffle unique?

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: (00:42) Is the UK uniquely miserly when it comes to the state pension? That’s the story a viral social media post is telling - but have they adjusted to account for complicated structural differences between national systems? Reader, they have not. (07:23) In a podcast feud nobody saw coming, Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg and Tucker Carlson recently locked horns over whether Russia or UK has a larger economy. Who's right? Only one person can possibly adjudicate this one: Duncan Weldon.(15:06) What effect did this year’s heatwaves have on excess deaths? We analyse the mortality data and explore how, despite thousands of deaths associated with the heat, 2026 is so far setting a record low mortality rate.(22:35) And finally, in an ‘and finally’ story to end all ‘and finally’ stories, we finally ask how many times the world population can fit into Loch Ness. And Lake Baikal. And, finally, the Caspian Sea. Guests: Heidi Karjalainen – Senior Research Economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies Stuart McDonald – Partner and Head of Longevity and Demographic Insights at consultancy firm Lane Clark & Peacock Duncan Weldon – Economist and author of ‘Blood and Treasure: The Economics of Conflict from the Vikings to Ukraine’ Dr Keith Still – Director of Crowd Risk Analysis Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Producers: Nathan Gower, Lizzy McNeill, Kateryna Pavlyuk Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Engineer: James Beard ARCHIVE: The Tucker Carlson Show, YouTube

How much could climate change cost the global economy? That would be a very useful thing to know, and scientists have developed statistical models that they think can help give a reasonable answer. These involve finding the patterns in economic data associated with temperature changes - and then applying them to the future changes that are predicted as the globe warms. In 2024, a scientific paper was published that apparently offered the most accurate projection yet of that potential cost - analysing the impact of temperature on economic activity at a far more granular level than had been attempted before. The paper quickly became highly influential. And then at the end of 2025, it was retracted. Why? It’s all got something to do with Uzbekistan. Solomon Hsiang, Professor of Global Environmental Policy at the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability, explains how he and his team identified the problem.Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Mix: Dave O’Neill Editor: Richard Vadon

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:(00:40) Does the UK account for nine out of ten of the poorest regions in Northern Europe? It’s a classic story of devil meets detail where the true meaning is the geographical inequality we met along the way.(07:54) An article in The Economist has claimed that a single donkey charity in Devon received more in annual donations than all the major political parties combined. Is this true? And if so, should we be Led by Donkeys?(11:29) Last week 781 migrants crossed the channel in small boats in one day. Social media is keen to work out how much this might cost the UK economy. We put the numbers in context and ask Madeleine Sumption from the Migration Observatory about the fiscal impact of asylum seekers.(21:38) A claim has been buzzing round the internet that bees could hold the secret to long life, but our team is sceptical. We deliver the statistical exposé of Big Honey that the mainstream media’s been too afraid to cover.Guests: Liam Sides, Associate Director at Oxford Economics’ Cities and Regions team Dr Madeleine Sumption, Director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford Professor Dot Bennett, Professor of Cell Biology at City St. George's, University of London Dr Ramsay Bowden, Consultant in Clinical Genetics at Cambridge University HospitalsPresenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Reporters: Lizzy McNeill and Kateryna Pavlyuk Producer: Nathan Gower Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Engineer: James Beard

US president Donald Trump has claimed in a speech to the UN that the US and Venezuela combined now have 60% of the world’s oil. 100% of the team on More or Less were confused.What measurement was the president using to get to this figure? Barrels of oil produced a day? Reserves of oil in the ground? It’s hard to make any of these stats add up.To find out whether there was any truth in the claim, we spoke to energy expert Bill Farren-Price of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.If you spot any numbers you think we should take a look at, email us at [email protected]: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Researcher: Kateryna Pavlyuk Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Mix: Neil Churchill

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:(00:42) Frustrated economists have been left rending their garments and howling in the streets after the UK’s ‘productivity puzzle’ - a decade-long head-scratching, soul-searching conundrum - disappeared with a click of the fingers and a tweak of the methodology. Should the Office for National Statistics have acted sooner? We ask Financial Times economic guru Chris Giles.(07:26) Can it really be true that by the 1960s, one in ten Irish children entered religious orders? Reporter Lizzy McNeill has the answer, and the history.(13:51) Is the AI datacentre goldrush threatening to swamp our electricity grid? And what are the consequences for its carbon footprint? We delicately untangle the live wires of this hot potato and give the people what they want: nuanced #GridChat.(20:38) This is the way the album ends - not with a banger, but with a whimper. Music Substacker Mitchell Stirling has used data to test the decades theory that albums tend to end with a quiet track. Come for the explanation of the physics of vinyl, stay for whatever music we end up being able to use.Guests: Chris Giles - Economics Commentator at the Financial Times Johnny Gowdy - Director at Regen Mitchell Stirling - Substacker, data nerd, music nerd (Renaissance man)Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Reporters: Nathan Gower and Lizzy McNeill Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Engineer: James Beard

Are fruit and vegetables less nutritious than they used to be? And is declining soil quality to blame? Loyal listener Sarah got in touch to ask us to investigate an interesting quote from Dr Karan Rajan in a BBC news story. “We know our soil is not as nutrient dense as it was decades ago,” he said. “So a carrot in the 1950s will be far more nutrient-rich than a 2026 carrot.” Is this really true? wondered Sarah. We wondered the same, so we spoke to some experts on fruit and veg nutrition to find out. CONTRIBUTORS Robin  Marles, a former senior scientist in Canada’s  Food and Nutrition Directorate Professor Steve McGrath, a research scientist at Rothamsted ResearchCREDITS Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Mix: Sue Maillot Editor: Richard Vadon

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:(00:33) Are crumbling teeth the number one reason children attend A&E? We drill down into the dental health of the nation’s kids.(08:20) The US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee has claimed that a quarter of pharmaceuticals used in the UK come from Israel. We check the facts.(13:20) Is former Education Secretary Michael Gove responsible for increasing number of young people not in education, employment or training?(20:11) An AI researcher has caused a global firestorm by suggesting there’s more than a 10% chance AI kills all humans within the next decade. We explore the rigorous maths (or lack thereof) behind these kinds of predictions.Guests: Dr Chris Vernazza - head of the School of Dental Sciences at Newcastle University Daisy Christodoulou - Director of Education at No More Marketing Dr Alexandru Marcoci - Assistant Professor of Global Risk and Resilience at the University of CambridgePresenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producers: Nathan Gower, Phoebe Keane Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Engineer: Neil Churchill

Every year, climate scientists keep a close eye on data coming out of a particular area of the Pacific Ocean. They’re trying to measure the scale of a climate phenomenon - the El Niño event or effect. This is a naturally occurring phenomenon where ocean surface temperatures rise, transferring warmth from the ocean to the atmosphere. This can drive up global temperatures but also play havoc with weather systems, with profound consequences. And this year, scientists have watched with ever-widening eyes, as their projections for the peak of this year’ El Niño event have come in unprecedently high. Indeed, one climate scientist has argued that it's not beyond the realm of possibility to say this might be the strongest El Niño event in 500 or even 1,000 years. We wanted to find out more, so we went straight to the scientist himself. Contributor: Dr. Zeke Hausfather - research scientist with Berkeley Earth and climate research lead at StripeCredits: Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Nathan Gower Series Producer: Tom Colls Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Mix: Dave O’Neill Editor: Richard Vadon

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:(00:38) The number of people being recalled to prison after early release in England and Wales is rising sharply. Why?(07:37) Is the UK millionaire an endangered species? We ask Duncan Weldon - he’s like David Attenborough, but for economics.(14:21) A viral graph seems to show that Europe is having a record low year for wildfires. How can we reconcile this with this summer’s shocking coverage of fires in France and Spain?(21:36) We all know seagulls are low-life thieves - but can they really be responsible for £171m worth of robbery? Prepare for five minutes of public service journalism at its finest.Guests: Cassia Rowland, Senior Researcher at the Institute for Government Hannah Ritchie, Deputy Editor at Our World in Data Duncan Weldon, economist and author of Blood and Treasure Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Tom Colls Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producers: Nathan Gower, Phoebe Keane, Josh McMinn Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: James Beard

Can it really be true that every shuffle of a deck of cards is unique? Mathematician and stand-up comedian Matt Parker claims that every time you do a shuffle, the cards have never been in that order before. But how can he be so confident? Matt came into the studio armed with a deck of cards and some very big calculations to back up his big assertion, and introduced us to the mind-splitting mathematical world of factorials and combinatorics. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Nathan Gower Series producer: Tom Colls Sound engineer: James Beard Programme co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Editor: Richard Vadon